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Publication 54

Estimated Tax(p7)

The requirements for determining who must pay estimated tax are the same for a U.S. citizen or resident abroad as for a taxpayer in the United States. For current instructions on making estimated tax payments, see Form 1040-ES.
If you had a tax liability for 2015, you may have to pay estimated tax for 2016. Generally, you must make estimated tax payments for 2016 if you expect to owe at least $1,000 in tax for 2016 after subtracting your withholding and credits and you expect your withholding and credits to be less than the smaller of:
  1. 90% of the tax to be shown on your 2016 tax return, or
  2. 100% of the tax shown on your 2015 tax return. (The return must cover all 12 months.)
If less than two-thirds of your gross income for 2015 and 2016 is from farming or fishing and your adjusted gross income for 2015 is more than $150,000 ($75,000 if you are married and file separately), substitute 110% for 100% in (2). See Pub. 505 for more information.
The first installment of estimated tax is due on April 18, 2016.

Foreign earned income exclusion. (p8)

When figuring your estimated gross income, subtract amounts you expect to exclude under the foreign earned income exclusion and the foreign housing exclusion. In addition, you can reduce your income by your estimated foreign housing deduction. However, you must estimate tax on your nonexcluded income using the tax rates that will apply had you not excluded the income. If the actual amount of the exclusion or deduction is less than you estimate, you may have to pay a penalty for underpayment of estimated tax.
For more information about figuring your estimated tax, see Pub. 505.